The Ministry of Economic Development focused on a relatively stable external conjuncture in 2016


October 20, 2015

On October 20, 2015 the meeting of the Public council at the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation took place.

Members of Public council participated in a meeting: the State secretary, the Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Oleg Fomichev, the Director of Joint department of macroeconomic forecasting Kirill Tremasov, the rector of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Vladimir Mau, the president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Alexander Shokhin and others.

According to the Deputy Minister Oleg Fomichev, the Ministry of Economic Development doesn't plan to develop a new anti-crisis plan for 2016. "We need to come back to planned work within the main activities of the government and to balance short-term measures, which and so are taken, with the measures necessary for further development", - he noticed.

"Today 21 points of the Plan are considered executed and removed from control, - he declared during a meeting of the Public Council. - Financial parameters are provided by 27 points".

The total amount of an "anti-crisis fund" with taking into account the "passing" rest of 2014 and redistribution of budgetary appropriations in 2015, according to him, made 228.0 billion roubles.

A key focus of the Plan is to ensure social stability. In particular, indexation of pensions makes 188 billion roubles, support of actions for decrease of tensity in labour market – 52.2 billion roubles, support for low-income citizens, expand of maternity capital use opportunities – 54.2 billion roubles.

The Director of Joint department of macroeconomic forecasting Kirill Tremasov noted that the dynamics of GDP after two months of zero growth in September demonstrated the growth by 0.3%. "Following the results of a year we are guided by an indicator of reduction of GDP – 3.8%", - the representative of the Ministry of Economic Development declared.

According to September, dynamics of investments was better than expectations. This factor is connected with approximate monthly calculations of statistics of Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service) and renewal of recession of consumer expenses. "We considered that to the middle of year consumption will be stabilized and in process of delay of inflation will start increasing", - Tremasov said.

In his opinion, a September failure in consumption is the single phenomenon, and consumption by the end of the year has to be improved, that will be promoted by stabilization in the markets and improvement of an inflationary picture. The inflation situation is close to the expected one – 12.2% by the end of the year. The inflationary trend will continue to be slowed down and according to forecasts for the next year assumes 6.4% and decrease to 5% by 2018.

Resources in Russia are available, and it is important to send them to economy, having provided transformation of savings to accumulation. However, there is a big risk for the forecast - unpredictability in emerging markets.

"Summing up the forecast, next year we focus on the relatively stable external conjuncture, overcoming the difficulties of the world economy. We expect that raw material prices will remain stable. Russia's economic growth is projected in the range of 0.7%. Industrial growth will be renewed and accelerated to 2% by 2018. The real disposable incomes fell again by 0.7% in 2016 due to tough indexing. The unemployment rate will remain stable ", - concluded Kirill Tremasov.