Alexey Vedev: Recovery growth of the economics will start in the IV quarter of 2015


During parliament hearings, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Alexey Vedev addressed the Federal Council with a speech titled “On a forecast of the Russian Federation social and economical development in 2015-2018, as well as parameters of the 2016 federal budget project”.

Alexey Vedev stated that, at the end of the first nine months of 2015, the GDP amounts to 3.8%.

“Recovery growth of the economics will start in the IV quarter 2015 or even in September. According to our assessment, net seasonal growth amounts to 0.3%,” said he. Considering the whole year, this means that the RF GDP dynamics will reach the positive domain in the II quarter of 2016.

The basic scenario of the main parameters forecast for 2016, which was used as a foundation for the budget calculations, was developed on the assumption that a barrel of oil will cost $50 in 2016, $52 in 2017 and $55 in 2018.

In general, it is expected that the GDP will decrease by 3.9% in 2015, increase by 0.7% in 2016, by 1.9% in 2017, and by 2.4% in 2018.

According to the Deputy Minister, acceleration of the growth in 2017-2018 will be facilitated by agitation of investment demand. Expected growth of investment will be about 2.1% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018. “The primary task of the mid-term economic policy is arrangement of conditions for transformation of savings into investments,” mentioned Alexey Vedev.

The Deputy Minister stated that the fall of investments will reach its bottom in the I quarter of 2016. “After about 10% decrease of fixed investment this year, we expect stable, but nevertheless low investment activity in 2016. According to forecasts, it will decrease by 1.6%. We expect the bottom to be reached in the I quarter of 2016, while agitation of investments is forecasted since the II quarter,” told Alexey Vedev.

In addition to that, the Deputy Minister presented a target scenario developed by an order of the President. In accordance with this scenario, Russian economics will enter a steady grown trajectory with at least worldwide average paces, inflation will fall to 4%, labor efficiency will rise by at least 5%, while macroeconomic balance will be reached at the same time.