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Minister Elvira Nabiullina spoke at the XIII April international Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development

03.04.12

On 3, April, 2012, in Moscow Minister Elvira Nabiullina spoke at the XIII April international Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development.

The Conference is organized by the National Research University – High School of Economics with support of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

 

Statements of Minister Elvira Nabiullina, 3 April 2012

 

Russia Forecasts 2012 Urals Oil at $115

MOSCOW, April 3 (RIA Novosti)

The average price for Russia's main crude oil export blend, Urals, will be $115 per barrel in 2012, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said on Tuesday, giving Russia a balanced budget despite rising spending.

"We proceed from expectations that oil prices will fall ... so the average oil price this year may be $115," Nabiullina said.

The Russian budget is based on a Urals price of $100 per barrel in 2012, $97 in 2013 and $101 in 2014.

This March Urals oil reached a record level of $122.60 per barrel, Finance Ministry analyst Alexander Sakovich told RIA Novosti on Monday. Last year the average price for the country's core oil export blend stood at $109.35 per barrel.

Oil prices have been rising for several months amid an EU states' boycott of oil supplies from Iran. Oil traders are also concerned about the possibility of a future war with Iran as well as wider political instability in the Middle East, including the crisis in Syria.

Experts consider oil prices at a level of $110 per barrel this year will help President-elect Vladimir Putin to fulfil his pre-election promises, including support of families with many children, an increase in stipends for students to living-wage level and higher wages for academic staff and teachers.

 

Russia raises 2012 average oil price fcast to $115

MOSCOW, April 3 (Reuters)

Russia's economy ministry has raised its 2012 average oil price forecast to $115 per barrel from a previous estimate of $100 per barrel, Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina said on Tuesday.

Nabiullina said that Urals blend URL-E crude price forecasts for the following two years have been left unchanged at $97 and $101 respectively, adding that the ministry expects oil prices to decline from current levels.

The ministry had initially envisaged a budget deficit of 1.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012, while analysts say that Russia could balance the budget this year with an average oil price of around $118-$120 per barrel.

Prices for Urals last stood at $121.85 per barrel.

Oil prices are crucial to whether Russia can balance its budget in coming years given spending commitments made by Vladimir Putin in the run up to his victory in presidential elections last month.

Nabiullina also said that Russia's oil output in the next 20 years will remain at around 2011 levels, and the country's economic growth potential based on increasing oil production is already depleted.

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